Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction |
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| Authors: | Weizong Gu Weijing Li Deliang Chen |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;(2) Departamento de Astrofísica y Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain;(3) NCCR Climate, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | A downscaling method taking into account of precipitation regionalization is developed and used in the
regional summer precipitation prediction (RSPP) in China. The downscaling is realized by utilizing the
optimal subset regression based on the hindcast data of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate
Model of National Climate Center (CGCM/NCC), the historical reanalysis data, and the observations. The
data are detrended in order to remove the influence of the interannual variations on the selection of predictors
for the RSPP. Optimal predictors are selected through calculation of anomaly correlation coe±cients (ACCs)
twice to ensure that the high-skill areas of the CGCM/NCC are also those of observations, with the ACC
value reaching the 0.05 significant level. One-year out cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate
that the downscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most
of China with high and stable accuracy, and is much better than the direct CGCM/NCC prediction. The
predictors used in the downscaling method for the RSPP are independent and have strong physical meanings,
thus leading to the improvements in the prediction of regional precipitation anomalies. |
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| Keywords: | Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model (CGCM) downscaling method regional precipitation prediction |
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