| Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during 1100-2002 |
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| 作者姓名： | JIANG Tong ZHANG Qiang Yves GUERNOND |
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| 作者单位： | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology，CAS，Nanjing 210008，China; 2. Key Lab of Waterlogging and Flood and Wet Agriculture of Hubei Province，Jingzhou 434025，China; 3. Laboratoire MTG - UMR 6063 IDEES，Universit de Rouen，76821 Mont-Saint-Aignan cedex，France |
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| 基金项目： | Sino-France Cooperation Foundation (PRA E02-07)，The key project of CAS，No.KZCX3-SW-331，National Natural Science Foundation of China，No.40271112，Foundation of Key Laboratory of Flood and Waterlogging and Wet Land Agriculture of Hubei Province |
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| 摘 要： | 1IntroductionClimatic warming, flood hazards and their impacts on human society receive increasing attention from governments and public (IPCC, 2001). During recent years, agriculture, industry and even the development of the whole national economy suffered tremendous loss resulted from flood and waterlogging hazards.The Yangtze Delta is densely populated and economically developed. Monsoonal climate, geomorphologic characteristics and human activities inflict floods and water-logging hazar…
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 洪水事件 历史气候 长江三角洲 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-11-16 |
Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during 1100–2002 |
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| JIANG Tong,ZHANG Qiang,Yves GUERNOND.Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during 1100-2002[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2004,14(1):70-80. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Tong Zhang Qiang Yves Guernond |
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| Institution: | 1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,CAS,Nanjing,China;2.Key Lab of Waterlogging and Flood and Wet Agriculture of Hubei Province,Jingzhou,China;3.Laboratoire MTG — UMR 6063 IDEES,Universit de Rouen,Mont-Saint-Aignan cedex,France |
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| Abstract: | Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent. |
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| Keywords: | Yangtze Delta historical and instrumental climate changes Mann-Kendall method climate control on flood events |
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