| 南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵广生,牛小静.南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估[J].海岸工程,2021,40(1):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵广生 牛小静 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学 水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题——南海岛礁的概率海啸危险性分析方法和应用(2018-KY-01);国家自然科学基金面上项目——气象海啸的诱发机制及预报方法研究(51779125)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率海啸风险评估 马尼拉海沟 岛礁 南海 防灾减灾 |
Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Assessment of Main Islands and Reefs in the South China Sea |
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| ZHAO Guang-sheng,NIU Xiao-jing.Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Assessment of Main Islands and Reefs in the South China Sea[J].Coastal Engineering,2021,40(1):1-9. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Guang-sheng NIU Xiao-jing |
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| Institution: | (State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084) |
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| Abstract: | The source parameters that affect the scale of seismic tsunami are numerous and have strong uncertainty.Adequate assessment of tsunami risk requires a large number of scenario simulations.Based on the established probabilistic tsunami risk assessment model,the probabilistic tsunami risk at main islands and reefs in the South China Sea is evaluated by using a method for highly efficient simulation of tsunami.Through the analysis of historical earthquake data and by considering comprehensively the randomness of magnitude,epicenter and focal depth,a set of potential seismic scenarios with a million magnitude is formed and the superposition approximation method is used to realize the simulation of tsunami process induced by a large number of seismic scenarios.By using this method,the large numbers of earthquake and tsunami scenarios can be translated into the calculation of propagation of water level disturbance per unit source and the propagation database of the unit disturbance source is used to calculate the water level fluctuation process of the target locations.By this way,the computational burden of the large-scale scenario simulations can be reduced to a great extent.Based on the large-scale scenario simulations and combined with the occurring probability of each scenario,the recurrence period of the wave height of tsunami at the main islands and reefs in the South China Sea is objectively given,thus providing references for the island disaster prevention and mitigation.The research results have indicated that the tsunami wave height occurring once in a century at most of the target islands and reefs is less than 0.4m.The tsunami risk varies greatly at different locations within the South China Sea.Near the Dongsha Islands the tsunami wave height occurring once in a century is higher than 0.6m,whereas at the Yongle Islands of Xisha and the Nansha Islands the tsunami heights are significantly lower than those in other areas. |
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment(PTRA) Manila Trench islands and reefs South China Sea Disaster prevention and mitigation |
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