How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts |
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| Authors: | Heidi Kreibich Veit Blauhut Jeroen CJH Aerts Laurens M Bouwer Henny AJ Van Lanen Alfonso Mejia |
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| Institution: | 1. Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany;2. Environmental Hydrological Systems, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;3. Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;4. Climate Service Center Germany, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany;5. Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands;6. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA |
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| Abstract: | For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological extremes damage dynamic risk vulnerability trend attribution paired catchments consecutive hydro-hazards |
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