| 甘肃省碳排放变化及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张小平,方婷.甘肃省碳排放变化及影响因素分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(3):487-493. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张小平 方婷 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 兰州市科技发展计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用甘肃省人口、经济发展、能源消费等数据，通过相关方法对1997-2008年的碳排放总量、碳排放强度及其三大产业的碳排放进行了估算，并利用岭回归函数对STIRPAT扩展模型拟合，进一步分析影响甘肃省碳排放的因素。结果表明： （1）从1997-2008年甘肃省能源消费的碳排放量和人均碳排放量均呈逐年增长的趋势。碳排放量由1997年的1 767.14×104 t增加到2008年 4 341.64×104 t。人均碳排放量由1997年的0.7 t /人增长到2008年的1.65 t /人，且以煤炭消费的碳排放为主，占各能源碳排放的比例达到70%以上。（2）碳排放强度从1997-2001年呈波动变化，2001年以后则呈逐年下降趋势，总体上从1997年的2.214 t/104元下降到2008年的1.364 t / 104元。（3）三大产业的碳排放呈逐年上升趋势，且以第二产业的贡献为主。（4）人口增长、经济发展对碳排放影响较大，而生活水平的提高更加剧了碳排放的增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 因素分析 甘肃省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-09-30; |
Influence factors of carbon emission in Gansu Province |
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| ZHANG Xiao-ping
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FANG Ting.Influence factors of carbon emission in Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(3):487-493. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiao-ping FANG Ting |
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| Institution: | (School of Geography and Environmental Science of Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper adopts the data about Gansu population,economic development and energy consumption then estimates total per-capita carbon emission,carbon emission intensity and carbon emission of three major industries through the relevant method for the periods 1997-2008.In order to further analysis of the factors which affect carbon emission in Gansu Province,the STIRPAT extended model is fitted by ridge regression function.The conclusions indicate as follows:(1) The carbon emission and per-capita carbon emission of energy consumption showed a trend of increasing year by year in Gansu Province from the 1997-2008.The carbon emission increased from1 767.114 ten thousand tons in 1997 to 4 341.64 ten thousand tons in 2008.The per-capita carbon emission increased from 0.7 t/p in 1997 to 1.65 t/p in 2008.Carbon emission of coal consumption is the main factor,accounting for the energy ratio of carbon emissions over 70%;(2) Carbon emission intensity fluctuated from 1997 to 2001 and showed a trend of decline since 2001,overall,it decreased form 221.4 t/ten thousand Yuan in 1997 to 136.4 t/ten thousand Yuan in 2008;(3) The carbon emission of three major industries increased annually and dominated by the contribution of secondary industry;(4) Population growth and economic development had a greater impact on carbon emission,the growth of carbon emission is exacerbated by the improvement of living standards.After the above analysis,the paper presents some suggestion about development of low-carbon economy of Gansu Province:(1) economy should change to low-carbon structure regulated through adjusting the industrial structure and building low-carbon industry system.(2) The government should optimize the energy structure and improve energy efficiency.In order to reduce the ratio of coal on energy consumption the reproducible energy should be developed vigorously.The using of fossil fuels as coal should be decreased utmost by promoting the development of diversified structure of energy.(3) To eliminate institutional obstacles,the government should boost production of low-carbon business ideas and set up production of low-carbon energy efficiency standards and systems.In addition,the government should explore sustained manners of supporting energy conservation actively in public finance and establish financial mechanisms of energy saving which fit in with market economy.(4) To promote low-carbon life and build low-carbon city,people should change lifestyle from traditionally high-carbon model to low-carbon model and decrease emission of carbon dioxide at all aspects of daily life. |
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| Keywords: | carbon emission STIRPAT model factors analysis Gansu Province |
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