| 基于CMIP5模式的中国地区未来高温灾害风险预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 董思言,徐影,周波涛,侯美亭,李柔珂,於琍,张永香.基于CMIP5模式的中国地区未来高温灾害风险预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):365-369. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董思言 徐影 周波涛 侯美亭 李柔珂 於琍 张永香 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；
2 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081；
3 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044；
4 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项，国家重点基础研究计划，中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目，中国气象局气候变化专项，国家自然科学基金项目，LCS气候研究开放课题青年基金2014年度资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用CMIP5中22个全球气候模式模拟结果和相关社会经济数据，对RCP8.5情景下中国未来近期（2016-2035年）、中期（2046-2065年）、远期（2080-2099年）3个时段高温灾害风险的变化趋势进行了定量预估。结果表明：中国未来不同时期高温致灾危险度可能逐步增加；未来不同时期高温风险也趋于升高。III级及以上的高温灾害风险等级范围将增大，特别是东北三省、内蒙古、陕西、宁夏、贵州、福建等省（区）处于高风险等级的面积明显增大，山东、河北、河南、安徽在近期将出现V级高温灾害风险，中期和远期V级高温灾害风险将扩展到江苏、湖南、湖北、江西、四川、广西和广东等省（区）。
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| 关 键 词： | RCP8.5情景 高温灾害风险 未来预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-02-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-05-07 |
Projected Risk of Extreme Heat in China Based on CMIP5 Models |
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| Dong Siyan,Xu Ying,Zhou Botao,Hou Meiting,Li Rouke,Yu Li,Zhang Yongxiang.Projected Risk of Extreme Heat in China Based on CMIP5 Models[J].Advances in Climate Change,2014,10(5):365-369. |
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| Authors: | Dong Siyan Xu Ying Zhou Botao Hou Meiting Li Rouke Yu Li Zhang Yongxiang |
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| Institution: | 1.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2.Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 4.China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data, the extreme heat risk change during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) were projected by quantitative estimation under RCP8.5. The results show that the extreme heat hazard risk will gradually increase during different terms in the future, and extreme heat risk will also tend to increase. Class III and above of the extreme heat risk will increase, especially in the northeast, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou, Fujian provinces (autonomous region). In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui provinces, Class V of the extreme heat risk tends to appear in the near term, and it will extend to Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces (autonomous region) in the medium and long term. |
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| Keywords: | RCP8 5 scenario extreme heat risk projection |
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