| 气候变化对厦门旅游业影响的模糊综合评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐德才,王琳佳,李长顺,李萌萌.气候变化对厦门旅游业影响的模糊综合评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):370-376. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐德才 王琳佳 李长顺 李萌萌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学经济管理学院，南京 210044；
2 宿州市灵璧县气象局，宿州 234200；
3 福建省气象局气象服务中心，福州 350001 |
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| 基金项目： | 基于资源、环境约束与低碳制造的中国产业政策研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 以厦门市旅游业为研究样本，采用系统分析，围绕气候变化对旅游业发展的影响，建立气候变化对旅游业发展影响的评价指标体系，利用层次分析法对各指标因子进行权重测算，再利用模糊综合评价法进行评价，将气候变化对厦门旅游业的影响进行定量分析。结果显示，气候变化对旅游业的影响的隶属度最大值为0.309，是较强的。研究可以明确将旅游业发展过程中受气候变化影响的各个方面，按照受影响程度高低进行划分，从而可以有效指导旅游业相关从业者对风险进行归类，进而协调各方利益，有针对性地发展旅游业，从而实现旅游资源的长期利用和旅游业的可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 旅游业 厦门 模糊综合评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-12-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-08-05 |
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in Xiamen |
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| Tang Decai,Wang Linjia,Li Changshun,Li Mengmeng.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in Xiamen[J].Advances in Climate Change,2014,10(5):370-376. |
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| Authors: | Tang Decai Wang Linjia Li Changshun Li Mengmeng |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics & Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2.Lingbi Bureau of Meteorology, Suzhou 234200, China; 3.Meteorological Service Center, Weather Bureau of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper takes the tourism in the city of Xiamen as the research sample, adopting system analysis method, concentrating on the impacts of climate change on tourism’s development, building the relevant index system, and adopting analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of each index. Besides, it also applies fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate each index, performing the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change on tourism in the city of Xiamen. According to the research, the maximum membership grade of the impacts of climate change on tourism is 0.309, which is relatively high. According to influential degree, this research can clearly classify various parts which are affected by climate change in the process of tourism’s development. Therefore, it can effectively instruct tourism practitioners to implement risk classification, have a clearer understanding of the impacts, further coordinate the interests of different parties, achieve pertinent promotion and realize the long-lasting utilization of tourism resource and the sustainable development of tourism. |
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| Keywords: | climate change tourism Xiamen fuzzy comprehensive evaluation |
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