| 可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜珊,杨清华,梁颖祺,滕骏华,张林.可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析[J].极地研究,2017,29(3):399-413. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜珊 杨清华 梁颖祺 滕骏华 张林 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC1402705, 2016YFC1402707)和中国极地科学战略研究青年基金(20140402)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 全球气候变暖和北极海冰快速减少背景下,北极航道正在开通,提高海冰和气象预报能力是北极地区船只航行的重要保障。通过获取不同国家的北极高纬共享信息(包括观测数据、预报产品和历史分析资料),分析国际北极地区海冰和气象预报信息特点及存在的问题,能够为我国北极观测预报的常态化、业务化发展提供参考。通过对7个环北极国家、3个非北极国家以及3个信息发布平台共23家机构海冰和气象预报信息的对比,发现近年来各国北极预报水平提升,合作交流扩大,但是仍存在一些问题,如观测数据没有充分应用于预报、北极中央区的预报能力偏弱、预报信息共享度不够、信息应用时需要加以选择、仍需提升信息发布技术。通过上述分析,建议我国持续增加北极科考、国际合作、冰区安全航行预报保障技术研究等的投入,以系统提升我国的极地预报能力,为我国北极科考和极地航运事业提供更加及时有效的预报保障。
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| 关 键 词： | 海冰预报 气象预报 观测 数据 北极 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-11-15 |
Sea ice and weather forecasting information for Arctic sea routes: a synthetic analysis |
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| Jiang Shan,Yang Qinghua,Liang Yingqi,Teng Junhua,Zhang Lin.Sea ice and weather forecasting information for Arctic sea routes: a synthetic analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Polar Research,2017,29(3):399-413. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Shan Yang Qinghua Liang Yingqi Teng Junhua Zhang Lin |
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| Abstract: | The reduction in the extent of summer sea ice, associated with global climate change, offers the possibility
of new sea routes through the Arctic Ocean. Improving the skill of forecasting sea ice and weather
would strongly support Arctic navigation. Collecting international online information (including observational
data, forecast products, and historical analysis) of the high Arctic, and analyzing the characteristics of
sea ice extent and weather forecast information, could support the development of operational Arctic forecasting
by China. By comparing the information supplied by seven Arctic countries, three non-Arctic countries,
and three international information suppliers, it was found that sea ice and meteorological forecasting
capabilities have improved considerably, although further improvements could be made. For example, observational
data have not been applied fully, the prediction ability in the Central Arctic remains weak, sharing
of forecast information is insufficient, and comparison is needed when using online information. Furthermore,
the development of new information technologies is urgently required. To provide improved and
reliable protection in relation to sea ice and weather for Chinese Arctic expeditions and shipping activities, it
is strongly suggested that investment in Arctic scientific expeditions be increased, and that international cooperation
be sought for the development of forecasting technologies in relation to areas affected by Arctic
sea ice. |
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| Keywords: | sea ice forecast weather forecast observation data Arctic |
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