| 云南快速更新循环数值预报系统及其12小时降水预报检验与改进 |
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| 引用本文： | 王曼,张瑾文,邢冬.云南快速更新循环数值预报系统及其12小时降水预报检验与改进[J].云南地理环境研究,2019(2):1-5,36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王曼 张瑾文 邢冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“西行台风影响下云南强降水天气过程的机理研究”(41805037);云南省科技惠民项目“云南强对流灾害性天气短时临近预警系统研究”(2016RA096);云南省气象局项目“WRF快速循环同化系统的完善及应用”(TQ201501)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以中尺度WRF模式为基础,参照北京地区高分辨率快速更新循环同化系统,建立了云南快速更新循环数值预报系统(WRF-RUC)。为了充分了解该系统在云南省的预报性能,对预报结果进行个例和2016年6~7月检验。结果表明:快速更新循环同化数值预报系统能进行强降水过程预报,但与业务化“区域WRF数值预报系统”预报结果相比,12h降水预报评分较低。通过个例数值试验表明WRF-RUC系统进行本地化参数方案试验,挑选适合云南省的物理方案,是系统预报效果改进的有效途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报 RUC系统 降水检验 |
Rapid Update Cycle Forecast System and Verification of Its Early Application in Yunnan Precipitation Forecast |
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| WANG Man,ZHANG Jin-wen,XING Dong.Rapid Update Cycle Forecast System and Verification of Its Early Application in Yunnan Precipitation Forecast[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2019(2):1-5,36. |
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| Authors: | WANG Man ZHANG Jin-wen XING Dong |
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| Institution: | (Yunnan Institute of Meteorology,Kunming 650034,Yunnan,China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the mesoscale WRF model,with reference to the Beijing high-resolution rapid update cycle forecast system,established a rapid update cycle forecast system of Yunnan(WRF-RUC).In order to test the prediction performance of the system in Yunnan province,the paper tests the forecast results of precipitation case and the July 2016.Results show that update cycle forecast system can forecast for heavy rain process,but to the forecast results of “regional WRF numerical forecast system”,compared to 12 hours precipitation forecast rating is low.Numerical experiments show that the localization parameter scheme test of WRF-RUC system is effective ways to improve the prediction effect of the system. |
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| Keywords: | numerical forecast rapid update cycle forecast system precipitation verification |
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