| 对称性与西藏南部Ms≥6.6级地震趋势判断 |
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| 引用本文： | 张玲玲,董婕,延军平,王腾.对称性与西藏南部Ms≥6.6级地震趋势判断[J].高原地震,2012,24(3):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张玲玲 董婕 延军平 王腾 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安,710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策” |
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| 摘 要： | 在掌握西藏南部(26°～32°N,78°～98°E)19次历史地震数据后,从时间对称性方面研究该区域历史地震发生规律,分析未来地震发生的可能时间,从而为西藏地震灾害的监测提供一定的依据。从三元、四元和五元可公度信息提取法和蝴蝶结构法进行分析,得出未来10年内,西藏南部Ms≥6.6级地震的信号在2012年、2013年和2015年较强,有发生6.6级以上地震的可能。
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| 关 键 词： | 趋势判断 对称性 蝴蝶结构 可公度 西藏 |
THE SYMMETRY AND THE TENDENCY JUDGMENT OF Ms ≥6.6 EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHERN TIBET |
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| ZHANG Lingling,DONG Jie,YAN Junping,WANG Teng.THE SYMMETRY AND THE TENDENCY JUDGMENT OF Ms ≥6.6 EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHERN TIBET[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012,24(3):1-5. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lingling DONG Jie YAN Junping WANG Teng |
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| Institution: | (College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710062,China) |
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| Abstract: | Historic earthquake activity in Tibet has been analyzed by the time symmetry based on the 19 times historical seismic data of southern Tibet(26°~32°N,78°~98°E),and predicted the time of the future earthquake occurrence and provided the basic reference for earthquake monitoring in Tibet.Based on the method of commensurability information extract including ternary,quaternary and quintuple and butterfly structure,the results show that in the next 10 years,there is a probability of Ms≥6.6 earthquakes occurred in southern Tibet in 2012,2013,2015. |
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| Keywords: | trendy pre - earthquake anomaly Symmetry Butterfly structure Commensurability Tibet |
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