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New Progress in LURR-Integrating with the Dimensional Method |
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| Authors: | Xiang-chu Yin Yue Liu Peter Mora Shuai Yuan Lang-ping Zhang |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration (CEA), Beijing, 100036, China 2. LNM (State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100190, China 3. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing, 100081, China 4. Maths Capital Management Pty Ltd, Brisbane, QLD, Australia |
| Abstract: | The evolution laws of LURR (Loading–Unloading Response Ratio) before strong earthquakes, especially the peak point of LURR, are described in this paper. The results of four methods (experimental, numerical simulation, seismic data analysis and with damage mechanics analysis) lead to a consistent conclusion—the evolution laws of LURR before strong earthquakes are that, at the early stage of the seismic cycle, LURR will fluctuate around 1 and in the late stage, it rises swiftly and to its peak point. At some time after this peak point, a catastrophic event or events occur. These do not occur at the peak point, but lag behind. The lag time which is denoted by T 2 depends on the magnitude M of the upcoming earthquake among other factors. In order to consider the influence of geophysical parameters in a specific region such as $ \dot{\gamma }, $ E a and J (t), where $ \dot{\gamma } $ is the shear strain rate of tectonic loading in situ, E a is the sum of radiated energy of all earthquake occurring in a specific region measured during a long time duration (110 years in this paper) divided by the area of the region and the time duration, and J (t) is a parameter denoting the LURR anomaly area weighted with Y (the value of LURR) and represents the expanse and degree of the seismogenic zone. The dimensional analysis method has been used to reveal the relation between M, T 2 and other parameters in situ for more reliable earthquake prediction. |
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