| 龙卷风的风强分析与极值推断 |
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| 引用本文： | 干莲君,田心如,张东凌,项瑛,罗莹.龙卷风的风强分析与极值推断[J].气象科学,1999(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 干莲君 田心如 张东凌 项瑛 罗莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气候应用所!南京，210009，江苏省气候应用所!南京，210009，江苏省气候应用所!南京，210009，江苏省气候应用所!南京，210009，江苏省气候应用所!南京，210009 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用1955－1997年影响盐城市的龙卷风资料，按富士达F等级定义龙卷风风强分类级别，对盐城市受袭击点的破坏程度进行风强分级，并分析各个时段龙卷风风强等级的频数。应用耿贝尔极值分布理论，对影响盐城市的龙卷风风速极值进行统计推断，获得1％风险度龙卷风风速极值，以及各种特定重视期间的极值。
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| 关 键 词： | 龙卷风 分级 极值 推断 |
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS AND EXTREME VALUE INFERENCE OF TORNADOES |
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| Gan Lianjun,Tian Xinru,Zhang Dongling,Xiang Ying,Luo Ying.THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS AND EXTREME VALUE INFERENCE OF TORNADOES[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1999(1). |
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| Authors: | Gan Lianjun Tian Xinru Zhang Dongling Xiang Ying Luo Ying |
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| Abstract: | Data of tornadoes influencing Yancheng city from 1955 to 1997 is used to define tornadoes' grades by Fushida's "F" grades,and to grade them according to the destroyed level for all places of Yancheng city. Tornadoes' grade frequency of per time is also analyzed.Gumbel's theory of extreme value distribution is applied to carry out statistics and infer wind speed extreme value of tornadoes influencing Yancheng city, so we can obtain tornadoes'wind speed extreme value under 1% risk degree and in all kinds of special periods when tornadoes will appear again. |
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| Keywords: | tornado grade extreme value inference |
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