| 渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李琪,刘淑德,王琨,张崇良.渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响[J].海洋学报,2023,45(3):27-39. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李琪 刘淑德 王琨 张崇良 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国海洋大学 水产学院，山东 青岛 266003 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划（2018YFD0900906，2018YFD0900904）。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 大多数渔业种类由于数据缺乏，无法使用传统的渔业资源评估方法开展评估和管理。越来越多的研究采用CMSY等基于有限数据的评估方法，但CMSY方法在渔获量数据时间序列长度有限、存在误差等情况下的评估可靠性尚有待验证。本研究运用CMSY方法对黄海3种产量较高的经济鱼类开展资源评估，探索渔获量数据时间序列长度、不同渔业发展阶段，以及观测误差水平对评估结果的影响。结果表明，鲐、带鱼和银鲳在2000年后均出现产量高于最大可持续产量(MSY)的情况，资源处于过度利用状况(B/BMSY<1、 F/FMSY>1)，近10年来开发强度降低，但生物量仍处于较低水平(B/BMSY<1)。评估模型的回溯性分析结果差异较小，表明评估结果稳定。从数据长度上看，使用遍历产量上升和下降过程的长时间序列数据，其评估结果更为稳定。在观测误差大于20%的情况下，模型对MSY和BMSY出现高估，但结果仍较为稳健。在CMSY方法的应用中应注意选取长时间序列的产量数据，在评估结果不确定性高的情况下应采取相对保守的渔业管理措施。
|
| 关 键 词： | 数据有限方法 资源评估 CMSY方法 渔获产量 时间序列数据 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-09-04 |
Effects of lengths of catch time series on stock assessment using CMSY method |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China2.Shandong Fisheries Development and Resources Conservation Center, Yantai 264003, China3.Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The majority of global fish stocks lack adequate data for their stock statuses to be assessed using conventional stock assessment methods. Data-limited methods, such as CMSY, have been increasingly recommended as new solutions for stock assessment and fishery management. However, CMSY is highly dependent on data quality, and the reliability of the method is yet to be verified under circumstances of limited length of time series data and variable observational errors. In this study, we investigated effects of lengths of catch time series, stages of fishery development, and levels of observational errors in catches on stock assessment of three economically-important species in the Yellow Sea using CMSY method. The results show that chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus), and silver pomfret (Pampus argenteus), all have been overfished (B/BMSY<1 and F/FMSY>1), with their yields higher than estimated MSY since 2000, and although their fishing intensities have been reduced over the most recent decade, their biomasses remain at low levels (B/BMSY<1). The retrospective analysis show small differences in the results of stock assessment for the three species, indicating that the assessments are robust enough with long time series data. As to effects of lengths of catch time series, the assessments are more stable using time series data covering a period of both rise and fall in catches. The effect of observational errors in catches is also tested, showing that when the error is >20%, the model tend to overestimate MSY and BMSY, but the assessment remains robust enough. This study suggests that cautions should be undertaken in the application of CMSY by using longer time series of catch data and, in the presence of high uncertainty in the assessment, more conservative measures should be taken in fishery management. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
