Hydroclimate risk to economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa |
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| Authors: | Casey Brown Robyn Meeks Kenneth Hunu Winston Yu |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, The University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AR, UK;(2) NERC Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology, The University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK; |
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| Abstract: | In order to plan strategies for adaptation to climate change, the current effects of climate on economic growth need to be
understood. This study reviews evidence of climate effects on economic growth and presents original analysis of the effect
in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Case studies from the literature demonstrate that historically, climate has had significant and
negative effects on household income, agricultural productivity and economic growth in SSA. This study focuses on the effects
hydroclimatic variability on economic growth in the countries of SSA. We utilize a new national level precipitation statistic
that incorporates spatial and temporal variability within each country. Country level economic growth statistics are analyzed
in panel regressions. Persistent negative precipitation anomalies (drought) are found to be the most significant climate influence
on GDP per capita growth. Temperature and precipitation variability show significant effects in some cases. Results imply
the consideration of hydroclimatic risks, namely drought, may be the priority concern for adaptation to a changing climate
for Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion is contrary to the premise of many climate change impact assessments that focus on
temperature increases as the primary concern. |
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