| 深圳市房地产系统仿真及政策实验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗平,耿继进,王峰,陈勇.深圳市房地产系统仿真及政策实验研究[J].热带地理,2004,24(4):371-375. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗平 耿继进 王峰 陈勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.深圳市规划与国土资源局,广东,深圳,518031;;2.佛山科技学院,资环与土木建筑学院,广东,佛山,528000; |
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| 基金项目： | 深圳市规划与国土资源局科技项目(2002.8) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于系统动力学方法,构建了深圳市房地产系统仿真模型,在现状条件下,对1997～2010年的深圳市房地产系统进行了仿真和预测模拟,并进行了包括土地、人口、金融、通关等一系列可操作的政策实验.仿真结果表明,深圳市房地产市场总体发展是健康合理的,但在未来2～3年内存在住宅供应压力较大的隐患.根据政策实验结果提出了相应的措施和建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 房地产 仿真 政策实验 深圳市 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5221(2004)04-0371-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年11月27 |
SIMULATION OF REAL ESTATE SYSTEM AND EXPERIMENTS OF POLICIES OF SHENZHEN |
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| LUO Ping,GENG Ji-jing,WANG Feng,CHEN Yong.SIMULATION OF REAL ESTATE SYSTEM AND EXPERIMENTS OF POLICIES OF SHENZHEN[J].Tropical Geography,2004,24(4):371-375. |
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| Authors: | LUO Ping GENG Ji-jing WANG Feng CHEN Yong |
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| Institution: | LUO Ping~1,GENG Ji-jing~2,WANG Feng~2,CHEN Yong~2 |
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| Abstract: | A simulation model of real estate system of Shenzhen is built based on system dynamics, the whole real estate system of Shenzhen during 1997-2010 is simulated, and a series of experiments of policies for land, population, finance and customs etc. are conducted. The basic results show that the market of real estate of Shenzhen is healthy and reasonable, and the pressure to housing supply would be very big in the coming three years. Some suggestions are put forward: adjusting housing market from headstream of land, raising the doorsill of housing presale, strengthening government guidance to real estate development, and improving house structure. |
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| Keywords: | System dynamics Real estate Simulation Experiment of policy Shenzhen |
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