| Projected Potential Vegetation Change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜大膀 |
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| 作者单位： | Nansen-Zhu International |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院基金，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961 1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961-1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections, together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961-1990. In contrast, potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s, but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961 1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s, particularly in western China. Additionally, there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s, which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35°N and to the joint changes of surface temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35°N.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 大气-海洋模型 植被 不确定性 |
| 文章编号： | 10.1007/s00376-008-0126-1 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-01-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-29 |
Projected potential vegetation change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios |
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| Jiang?Dabang.Projected Potential Vegetation Change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008,25(1):126-138. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Dabang |
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| Institution: | Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961-1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961 1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections, together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961-1990. In contrast, potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s, but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961-1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s, particularly in western China. Additionally,there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s, which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35°N and to the joint changes of surface temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35°N. |
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| Keywords: | climate change potential vegetation projection uncertainty |
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