Soil geochemical parameters influencing the spatial distribution of anthrax in Northwest Minnesota,USA |
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| Institution: | 1. Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science, Surface Waters – Research and Management, Seestrasse 79, 6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland;2. University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Institute of Earth Sciences, Campus Trevano, 6952 Canobbio, Switzerland;3. Wasser-Agenda 21, Überlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland;4. Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Natural Resource Sciences, Grüental, 8820 Wädenswil, Switzerland;5. Kraftwerke Oberhasli AG, 3862 Innertkirchen, Switzerland;6. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany;7. Physics of Aquatic Systems Laboratory – Margaretha Kamprad Chair, EPFL-ENAC-IIE-APHYS, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Bacillus anthracis is the pathogenic bacterium that causes anthrax, which dwells in soils as highly resilient endospores. B. anthracis spore viability in soil is dependent upon environmental conditions, but the soil properties necessary for spore survival are unclear. In this study we used a range of soil geochemical and physical parameters to predict the spatial distribution of B. anthracis in northwest Minnesota, where 64 cases of anthrax in livestock were reported from 2000 to 2013. Two modeling approaches at different spatial scales were used to identify the soil conditions most correlated to known anthrax cases using both statewide and locally collected soil data. Ecological niche models were constructed using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) approach and included 11 soil parameters as environmental inputs and recorded anthrax cases as known presences. One ecological niche model used soil data and anthrax presences for the entire state while a second model used locally sampled soil data (n = 125) and a subset of anthrax presences, providing a test of spatial scale. In addition, simple logistic regression models using the localized soil data served as an independent measure of variable importance. Maxent model results indicate that at a statewide level, soil calcium and magnesium concentrations, soil pH, and sand content are the most important properties for predicting soil suitability for B. anthracis while at the local level, clay and sand content along with phosphorous and strontium concentrations are most important. These results also show that the spatial scale of analysis is important when considering soil parameters most important for B. anthracis spores. For example, at a broad scale, B. anthracis spores may require Ca-rich soils and an alkaline pH, but may also concentrate in microenvironments with high Sr concentrations. The study is also one of the first ecological niche models that demonstrates the major importance of soil texture for defining the ecological niche of B. anthracis. These results will help improve our understanding of the soil geochemical conditions most suitable for B. anthracis as well as more reliably identify areas where anthrax may be found to focus prevention and remediation efforts. |
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| Keywords: | Maximum entropy Logistic regression Disease Bacteria Ecological niche modeling |
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