| 延伸期预报中的可预报性浅析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马杰,金荣花.延伸期预报中的可预报性浅析[J].新疆气象,2019,13(3):137-143. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马杰 金荣花 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 延伸期（10-30天）预报是无缝隙集约化预报预测业务体系的重要一环，一直以来在防灾减灾科学决策中起着重要作用。然而实际预报中，其准确率较中短期天气预报和气候预测均明显偏低，原因在于随着预报时效延长，预报结果存在明显的不确定性。因此，业务预报中需要充分考虑预报对象的可预报性。本文通过总结延伸期时效可预报性的来源、主流数值模式预报性能的现状，介绍了一线业务中的预报思路及常用的可预报性参考产品，揭示了可预报性理论在延伸期预报中的应用。同时还展望了延伸期预报未来的发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 可预报性 中长期预报 误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/4/9 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/4/21 0:00:00 |
Analysis of predictability in extended range forecast |
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| Institution: | National Meteological centre,National Meteological centre |
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| Abstract: | The extended forecast (10-30 days) is an important part of the seamless intensive forecasting and forecasting business system, and has played an important role in the scientific decision-making of disaster prevention and reduction. However, in the actual forecast, the accuracy of extended forecast is significantly lower than the short, medium-range weather forecasts and climate predictions. The reason is that there are obvious uncertainties as the forecast leading time increases. Therefore, the predictability of forecast objects needs to be fully considered in operational forecasting. This paper introduces the source of predictability of extended period, and the state of the art in performance of mainstream numerical models, introduces the ideas in operational forecast and some predictive products commonly referenced by forecaster, and reveals the application of predictability theory in extended period forecast. Meanwhile, this study also provides some clues for the future development direction. |
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| Keywords: | Predictability Extended range forecast Forecast error |
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