| 数值模式预报时效对计算精度和时间步长的依赖关系 |
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| 引用本文： | 王鹏飞,黄刚.数值模式预报时效对计算精度和时间步长的依赖关系[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):395-403. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王鹏飞 黄刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,全球变化东亚区域研究中心,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX3-SW-218，国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2006CB400500，国家自然科学基金委青年项目40305012 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过数值计算研究Lorenz非线性动力系统,探讨了非线性动力系统中初值问题的解对时间步长和计算精度的依赖关系,从新的角度研究动力系统的预报时效问题,讨论了评价舍入误差对预报时效影响程度的方法。实验结果表明:动力系统的预报时效不仅与初值误差有关,而且在一定条件下敏感地依赖于计算采用的时间步长和计算精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 误差 非线性 动力系统 计算精度 预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9585(2006)03-0395-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 03 16 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 04 10 2006 12:00AM |
A Study on the Dependency of Maximum Prediction Time on Computation Precision and Time Step-size in Numerical Model |
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| WANG Peng-Fei and HUANG Gang.A Study on the Dependency of Maximum Prediction Time on Computation Precision and Time Step-size in Numerical Model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2006,11(3):395-403. |
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| Authors: | WANG Peng-Fei and HUANG Gang |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | Some dependencies on machine precision and step-size in float calculation of nonlinear dynamical system initial value question with errors are studied by using of multiple precision method for the Lorenz nonlinear equations.When using certain float point precision in computation the intrinsic maximum effective computation time can be used to study the maximum prediction time in atmospheric science.A method based on multiple precision computing to evaluate and extend the nonlinear dynamic system's maximum prediction time is presented.From the result we found that the predictability time is not only depend on initial error but also sensitive to the precision and the time step-size used in the computation. |
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| Keywords: | error nonlinear dynamics system precision prediction |
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