| 基于不用分辨率和参数化方案的新疆区域数值模式性能初步评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜娟.基于不用分辨率和参数化方案的新疆区域数值模式性能初步评估[J].新疆气象,2019,13(3):57-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 2018年数值预报发展专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于中尺度数值模式WRF，选取新疆两次强降水过程，设计三个试验方案，其中试验1为控制试验，试验2提高分辨率，试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案，初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2米温度、10米风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明：（1）提高分辨率对2米温度、10米风速模拟精度均有提高，2米温度预报精度提高约0.5℃，降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差；10米风速预报精度提高约0.5 m/s，降低了风速模拟正偏差；但提高分辨率后，模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。（2）提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后，2米温度模拟误差略有减小，模拟偏差减小约0.2℃；10米风速模拟误差增大约0.5 m/s，模拟偏差增大超过0.5 m/s；对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高，减小了降水中心的模拟强度，对虚假降水预报有一定修正。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆区域数值预报 WRF模式 空间分辨率 物理参数化方案 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/10/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/12/14 0:00:00 |
Impacts of different spatial resolutions and parameterization schemes on operational numerical prediction system in Xinjiang |
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| Du Juan.Impacts of different spatial resolutions and parameterization schemes on operational numerical prediction system in Xinjiang[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2019,13(3):57-65. |
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| Authors: | Du Juan |
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| Institution: | Institute of Desert Meteorology |
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| Abstract: | The skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting temperature, wind and rainfall in Xinjiang during two heavy rainfall processes was assessed by using different spatial resolutions and parameterization schemes. Three experiments were conducted, including (1) 27km/9km nested grid (Exp1), (2) 9km/3km nested grid (Exp2), (3) 9km/3km nested grid and modified parameterization schemes. Results showed that: (1) After increasing the spatial resolution, the simulation precision of air temperature was improved by 0.5 degrees centigrade and the cold bias during daytime was optimized. In addition, the RMSE of modeled 10 meters wind was decreased by 0.5 m/sand the wind positive deviation was reduced. However, too much spurious rainfall was produced. (2) By increasing the spatial resolution and changing the parameterization scheme simultaneously, the model accuracy of air temperature was further improved and the temperature deviation was reduced by 0.2 degrees centigrade. Moreover, the forecasting rainfall area and precipitation intensity were better predicted. Mainly the location and intensity of precipitation cell were well captured and spurious rainfall produced by increasing the spatial resolution was reduced. Nevertheless, the simulation error of 10 meters wind was increased about 0.5 m/s and the bias was enlarged by over 0.5 m/s. |
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| Keywords: | the operational numerical prediction system in Xinjiang WRF model spatial resolution physical parameterization scheme |
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