| 大震前复杂震源系统的非线性阶段和大震预报(一) |
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| 引用本文： | 秦保燕.大震前复杂震源系统的非线性阶段和大震预报(一)[J].西北地震学报,1986,8(4):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦保燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局兰州地震研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用现代统计物理学中相态突变前系统内出现的非平稳态现象于地震预报的研究中,得到了大震孕育时间T、弹性应变时段T_1与非线性时段T_2之比分别稳定在5和4附近。此比值与震源破裂方式、介质强度差异、构造运动速度差异无关,因而可作为浅源大震发生的临界指数。同时它还具有普适数特性,对不同地区的地震均适用。利用此比值常数以及由测震学指标所确定的T_1和求得的T_2可以进行确定性的中长期地震预报。另外本文还得到了孕震时间T与震级之间的两个统计式,它们分别对应于构造运动速度不同的地区。M_1=4.2+1.5logT (1) M_2=5.8+1.2logT (2) (1)式应用于构造运动速度高的地区,(2)式应用于构造运动速度一般的地区,式中的T以年为单位。利用上述两式可以进行粗略的地震长期预报。
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THE NON-LINEAR PERIOD OF COMPLEX FOCUS PRIOR TO LARGE EARTHQUAKES AND THE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES |
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| Qin Baoyan.THE NON-LINEAR PERIOD OF COMPLEX FOCUS PRIOR TO LARGE EARTHQUAKES AND THE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1986,8(4):1-8. |
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| Authors: | Qin Baoyan |
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| Institution: | Lanzhou Seismological Institute, State Seismological Bureau China |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies the non-stationary phenomenon coming out within the system before the sudden change of phase state in modern statistical physics to the study of earthquake prediction.It is obtained that the ratio between T,the preparation time of large earthquakes,T1,the interval of elastic strain and T2,the non-linear strain interval,which is respectively set around 5 and 4.This ratio has nothing to do with the way of focus fracture,the difference of medium strength and the difference of tectonic movement rate.So it can be used as the critical index of shallow earthquakes,and it is of the properties of universal constant,available for the earthquakes in different areas.By means of this ratio and T1,T2,determined by seismometry,the mid long-term forecasting of earthquakes can be done.In addition,two formulas between T,the preparation time of earthquake and magnitude are also obtained,which respectively correspond to the different areas with the different rate of tectonic motion.M1=4.2+1.5logT (1)M2=5.8+1.2logT (2)Formula (1) can be used in the areas where the rate of tectonic motion is high,and (2) used in the common areas.In the above formulas,T is in the unit of year.These two formulas can contribute to the preliminary long-term prediction of earthquakes. |
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