A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ & University College London WCIE 6BT, UK;2. Climatic Research Unit (CRU), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;1. Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7315, USA;2. Department of Geography and Resource Development, University of Ghana, PO Box LG59, Legon, Accra, Ghana;1. School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, University of New South Wales Canberra, Australia;2. Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;3. Texas Advanced Computing Center, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, USA;4. Centre for Ecosystem Management, Edith Cowan University, 270 Joondalup Drive, Joondalup, WA, Australia;5. Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), Hertogsingel 11B, 6211 NC Maastricht, The Netherlands;6. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Geography and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489 Berlin and Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;7. Water Resources Assessment Section -Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands VIC 3008, Australia;8. Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management (iCAM) Centre, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Building 48A, Linnaeus Way, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia;1. CIRED, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne, France;2. Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, USA;3. Department of Environmental Systems Science, USYS Transdisciplinarity Laboratory, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland;1. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;2. Institute for Economic Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Circuito Mario de la Cueva s/n, Ciudad de la Investigación en Humanidades, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510 México, D.F, Mexico;3. Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;1. King''s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK;2. African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa;3. Portland State University, Oregon, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, USA;4. Development Planning Unit, University College London, 34 Tavistock Square, London, UK;5. University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, 7701, South Africa;6. Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda;7. Overseas Development Institute, 203 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8NJ, UK;8. Faculty of Agronomy, University Abdou Moumouni, Niger |
| |
| Abstract: | Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or `co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied `bottom up’ to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
