| 辽东东探区温带气旋风暴减水重现值估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 董胜,周冲,陈同彦.辽东东探区温带气旋风暴减水重现值估计[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2012(Z2):150-155. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董胜 周冲 陈同彦 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学;胜利油田胜利勘察设计研究院有限公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50879085);新世纪优秀人才资助计划项目(NCET-07-0778)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于辽东东探区1966—2007年出现的76次温带气旋减水过程,对10个工程地点抽取了10个统计样本。考虑每年温带气旋出现频次的影响,使用泊松最大熵分布对其进行减水的长期统计分析。得到100年一遇和50年一遇最大幅度的减水重现值分别为304和286cm。由于受地形的影响,北部海域的减水幅度大于南部区域。
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| 关 键 词： | 温带气旋 极值减水 泊松最大熵分布 设计参数 |
Estimation of Return Negative Storm Surge Induced by Extratropical Cyclones in the Eastern Area of Liaodong Bay |
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| DONG Sheng,ZHOU Chong,CHEN Tong-Yan.Estimation of Return Negative Storm Surge Induced by Extratropical Cyclones in the Eastern Area of Liaodong Bay[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2012(Z2):150-155. |
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| Authors: | DONG Sheng ZHOU Chong CHEN Tong-Yan |
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| Institution: | 1.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;2.Shengli Engineering & Consulting Company LTD,Dongying 257026,China) |
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| Abstract: | Base on hindcasted data of 76 extratropical cyclone processes,10 samples are taken by 10 engineering sites in eastern section of Liaodong Bay.Considering the influence of extratropical cyclones,a Poisson maximum entropy distribution is utilized to do long term stochastic analysis of extreme negative storm surge elevations.The 100-year and 50-year return values are 304cm and 286cm,respectively.Because of the effect of topography in this studied area,the design negative storm surge elevations in the northern part increased in a relatively larger extend that those in the southern part. |
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| Keywords: | extratropical cyclone extreme negative storm surge Poisson maximum entropy distribution design parameter |
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