Some thoughts on the automated generation and selection of hypotheses in the earth sciences |
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| Authors: | W E Bardsley |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Earth Sciences, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | Many major scientific problems in the earth sciences can be expressed in terms of finding a sequence of past events which can explain an observed configuration. The  configuration might be anything from distribution of continents to a particular landform pattern. Because the past is unobservable, explanations take the form of one or more subjective hypotheses for a specific configuration origin. The subjective approach allows free rein of the human scientific spirit, but the way also is open for personal bias and construction of needlessly elaborate hypotheses. As an alternative, an objective process of hypothesis generation should be achievable by way of a generalized expert system incorporating all geological environments. The generality is required in order to allow for the possibility of producing surprising hypotheses, which might not have been anticipated in the context of any specific geological environment under study. In selecting from many available hypotheses, the criterion of simplicity is a useful means by which a hypothesis subset can be created and listed. However, no guarantee exists that subset members will better approximate the truth. The rationale is rather in terms of a working rule for avoiding unnecessary complexity in explanations. Creation of a generalized expert system would be a major project involving a team effort. Such a project would have the advantage of raising the scientific profile of mathematical geology, a subdiscipline which at present has something of an image of solving little problems elegantly. |
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| Keywords: | expert system simplicity mathematical geology explanation geological configurations |
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