A comprehensive assessment framework for attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater storage to climatic and anthropogenic changes: A case study in the typical semi-arid catchments of southern India |
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| Authors: | Rajesh Nune Biju A George Andrew W Western Kaushal K Garg Sreenath Dixit Ragab Ragab |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;2. ICRISAT Development Center (IDC), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Telangana, India;3. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane Crowmarsh Giffor, Wallingford, UK |
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| Abstract: | The clearest signs of hydrologic change can be observed from the trends in streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment. During 1980–2007, significant declines in streamflow (?3.03 mm/year) and groundwater levels (?0.22 m/year) were observed in Himayat Sagar (HS) catchment, India. We examined the degree to which hydrologic changes observed in the HS catchment can be attributed to various internal and external drivers of change (climatic and anthropogenic changes). This study used an investigative approach to attribute hydrologic changes. First, it involves to develop a model and test its ability to predict hydrologic trends in a catchment that has undergone significant changes. Second, it examines the relative importance of different causes of change on the hydrologic response. The analysis was carried out using Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a lumped groundwater model for each sub- catchment. The model results indicated that the decline in potential evapotranspiration (PET) appears to be partially offset by a significant response to changes in rainfall. Measures that enhance recharge, such as watershed hydrological structures, have had limited success in terms of reducing impacts on the catchment-scale water balance. Groundwater storage has declined at a rate of 5 mm/y due to impact of land use changes and this was replaced by a net addition of 2 mm/y by hydrological structures. The impact of land use change on streamflow is an order of magnitude larger than the impact of hydrological structures and about is 2.5 times higher in terms of groundwater impact. Model results indicate that both exogenous and endogenous changes can have large impacts on catchment hydrology and should be considered together. The proposed comprehensive framework and approach demonstrated here is valuable in attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater levels to catchment climatic and anthropogenic changes. |
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| Keywords: | climate and anthropogenic changes coupled catchment model potential evapotranspiration decline streamflow and groundwater trends watershed development |
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