Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios |
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| Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Kristie?L?EbiEmail author Jessica?Hartman Nathan?Chan John?Mcconnell Michael?Schlesinger John?Weyant |
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| Institution: | (1) Exponent, Inc., 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 300, Alexandria, VA, 22314, U.S.A.;(2) 442 Amsterdam Avenue, Apartment 4-C, New York, NY, 10024, U.S.A.;(3) Exponent, Inc., 149 Commonwealth Drive, Menlo Park, CA, 94025, U.S.A.;(4) Department of Emergency Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Road, Mail Code CR114, Portland, OR, 97239, U.S.A.;(5) University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 105 S. Gregory Street, Urbana, IL, 61801, U.S.A.;(6) Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-4023, U.S.A. |
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| Abstract: | Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts
to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA
model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100.
The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and
precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while
the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse
gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used
within or across other African countries. |
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