|
|||||
|
|
| 青海湖水量变化模拟及原因分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 舒卫先,李世杰,刘吉峰.青海湖水量变化模拟及原因分析[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):229-236. |
| 作者姓名： | 舒卫先 李世杰 刘吉峰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210008;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210008 3. 黄河水利委员会水文局信息中心,河南,郑州,450004 |
| 摘 要： | 为了探讨气候变化和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响,以分布式水文模型SWAT为基础,结合湖泊水量平衡模型,建立了青海湖水位(水量)模型,模拟了青海湖过去几十年水位变化过程。水文因子分析表明,20世纪80~90年代青海湖流域径流和湖泊水位变化的主要原因是气候变化。根据不同气候情景,对未来青海湖水位变化进行了预测。结果表明,未来30年径流增加的可能性比较大,青海湖水位下降速度将会减缓甚至出现上升趋势。这一结果将会缓解青海湖流域水资源日益紧张的局势,并有利于植被的恢复,减少土地沙化面积,对流域生态环境的改善和社会经济的发展将会有极大的帮助。 |
| 关 键 词： | SWAT模型 青海湖流域 水量变化 水文模拟 |
Simulation of water change in Qinghai Lake and affecting factors |
|
| SHU Wei-xian,LI Shi-jie,LIU Ji-feng.Simulation of water change in Qinghai Lake and affecting factors[J].Arid Land Geography,2008,31(2):229-236. | |
| Authors: | SHU Wei-xian LI Shi-jie LIU Ji-feng |
| Abstract: | Lake Qinghai,the largest closed semi-saline inland lake in China,is located at the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau.During the past 40 years,the average rate of water level descending is about 10 cm per year.Much more attention has already been paid to this problem.In order to explore the impact of climate change and human activity on basin hydrological process,the hydrological simulation model of the Qinghai Lake catchment,which is based on a large amount of geographical,social economic data and SWAT model,is built with the combination of hydrological model and lake water balance equation.Using the model,processes of runoff and lake level change in recent decades are simulated; the relationship of lake water balance is established;and the process of lake shrinking from 1981 to present is recurred.Quantitative analyses of hydrological factors indicate that climate fluctuation is made up 80% proportion of contribution to runoff changes and land use shifting accounts only 20%.In order to understand hydrological process sensibility to climate(temperature and precipitation),sensibility tests are carried out by designing different combination scenarios of water and heat.Temperature effect on lake water is weakening gradually while the temperature keeps rising under the condition of the same precipitation change;reversely,precipitation effect on lake water is strengthening gradually while the precipitation keeps rising under the condition of the same temperature change.Water level changes of the Qinghai Lake in the future are predicted under different climate scenario,the results show that the runoff would increase in the future 30 years with great possibility and the descending speed of water level of Qinghai Lake will slow down,even emerge the ascending of water level.The situation of lacking water resources would be ameliorated,vegetation would be restored and sandy area would be reduced,which would be of great help for improving the ecological conditions and developing the local economy of the Qinghai Lake Basin. |
| Keywords: | SWAT model Qinghai Lake Basin water change hydrological simulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |