Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake |
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| Authors: | Wang Shuang-xu Jiang Zai-sen Chen Wen-sheng Zhang Xi Chen Bing Zhang Si-xin and Wang Ji-ying |
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| Institution: | (1) The Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, China Seismological Bureau, 710054 Xi’an, China |
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| Abstract: | The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in
the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M
s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation
anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation
(strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly,
which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along
the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in
the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects
the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude
occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does
not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened
in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and
lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M
s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment.
Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project
of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China. |
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| Keywords: | Jingtai M s=5 9 earthquake fault deformation anomaly characteristics intermediate and short-term earthquake prediction |
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