RESEARCH ON FORECASTING STORM DEBRIS FLOWS |
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| Authors: | Lixian WANG and Songdong SHAO |
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| Institution: | Lixian WANG 1 and Songdong SHAO 2 |
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| Abstract: | It is of great significance to develop a simple and effective model forecasting storm debris flows. By means of statistical analysis of long term characteristics of precipitation in the mountainous regions to the north of Beijing, two kinds of forecasting models of storm debris flows are presented. They are applicable to hazard areas with and without rain gauging stations. Under the assumption that other factors triggering the occurrence of storm debris flows have been established, the forecasting models presented herein deal only with the key issue of critical rainfall, including the maximum rainfall rate and the accumulated rainfall of the event day and the pre event days. Field data collected from the mountainous regions near Beijing were used to test the overall performance of the models. The predicting capacity and reliability of the models have been demonstrated. |
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| Keywords: | Storm debris flow Critical rainfall Forecast |
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