Probabilistic prediction of capsize applied to small high-speed craft |
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| Authors: | K D H Bob-Manuel |
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| Institution: | Department of Marine Engineering, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, Nigeria |
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| Abstract: | The prediction of capsize of small high-speed craft is highly complex. In this paper, risk analysis is applied to predict the probability of capsize of two types of high-speed craft due to dangerous wave events in the estuary of the Bonny River in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Fibreglass reinforced plastic (FRP) hull craft, widely used for transportation, were considered for the prediction. The probability of the craft encountering a dangerous wave situation at a random position at sea and the probability of capsize were calculated using published wave statistics and computer-based analytical models. Results obtained compared favourably with similar analyses carried out by previous investigators for other regions. Various rational and practical ways of reducing the probability of capsize to an acceptable level are presented. From the prediction it was established that human error was a predominant factor in the capsize of vessels. |
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