| 基于土地利用变化模拟的生态风险动态评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雅杰,方媛,贺法法,邵庆军.基于土地利用变化模拟的生态风险动态评价[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2016(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雅杰 方媛 贺法法 邵庆军 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉,430079 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41171312) |
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| 摘 要： | 以松滋市2000年和2010年Landsat TM影像为基础,利用CA-Markov模型并引入土地利用总体规划限制因素,预测松滋市2020年土地利用情况。构建土地利用生态风险指数,运用4 km×4 km的网格模型采样,采用普通克里金插值法进行插值,引入密度分割法进行归一化等级划分,利用GIS工具进行空间叠加分析并制作土地利用生态风险分级图,实现土地利用变化生态风险动态评价,揭示生态风险变化趋势。模拟预测及评价结果显示:1松滋市2000~2020年土地利用结构发生较大变化,耕地、水域和未利用地面积减少,林地和建设用地面积增加。2土地利用生态风险呈逐步升高趋势,由2000年的21.95升高到2020年的88.53,分布以中部及南部较高,西部及东北部较低。32000~2020年分级结果主要以低风险、较低风险及次中风险为主,特高风险区域逐渐增多,生态风险等级以中心城区为中心呈圈层分布,且距离越远生态风险等级越低。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 CA-Markov 生态风险 动态评价 |
Ecological Risk Dynamic Assessment Based on Simulation of Land Use Change |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of Landsat TM images of Songzi city in 2000 and 2010, by using CA-Markov model and taking the fac-tors of the land use planning into consideration, the land use patterns and the spatial distribution in 2020 were forecasted.The eco-risk was conducted based on the land use change, the eco-risk plots of 4km ×4km were applied.The maps of the spatial distribution of eco-risk and eco-risk level were designed, obtained by using the eco-risk plots, ordinary Kriging, normalization methods of density slice and spatial overlay analysis by GIS, which to realize the eco-risk dynamic assessment of land use change and reveal the trend of eco-risk change.The conclusions from the Simulation of land use change and the eco-risk dynamic assessment showed that:1) The land use change was great between 2000 and 2020 in Songzi city.The area of cropland, waters and unused land de-creased, the area of forestland and construction land increased.2 ) The eco-risk of land use change was increasing trend and in-creased from 21.95 to 88.53 between 2000 and 2020.The high eco-risk was in the central region and south region, the low was in the west region and the northeast region.3) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of eco-risk level was mainly in low-risk, inferior-risk and weakly medium-risk and the strongly high-risk area gradually increased.The eco-risk level was a circle distribution and as the distance from center city was farther the eco-risk level of the area was lower. |
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| Keywords: | land use CA-Markov eco-risk dynamic assessment |
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