System analysis of weather fire danger in predicting large fires in Siberian forests |
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| Authors: | A V Rubtsov A I Sukhinin E A Vaganov |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Space and Information Technology,Siberian Federal University,Krasnoyarsk,Russia;2.Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences,Krasnoyarsk,Russia |
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| Abstract: | The prediction results of large-scale forest fire development are given for Siberia. To evaluate the fire risks, the Canadian
Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) and the Russian moisture indices (MI1 and MI2) were compared on the basis of the
data of a network of meteorological stations as input weather parameters. Parameters of active fires were detected daily from
the NOAA satellite data for the period of 1996–2008. To determine the length of the fire danger season, the snow cover fractions
from Terra/MODIS data (2001–2008) were used. The features of fire development on territories with different types of flammable
fuel are considered. The statistical analysis of the areas and number of fires typical of each vegetation class is made with
the use of the GLC2000 vegetation map. A positive correlation (∼0.45, p < 0.05) between the cumulative area of local fires and the MI1 and Canadian BUI and DMC indices is revealed. The Canadian
ISI and FWI indices describe best the diurnal dynamics of fire areas. The above correlations are higher (∼0.62, p < 0.05) when we select the fires larger than 2000–10000 ha in size for the forested areas. Other cases point to the lack
of a linear relation between the fire area and the values of all indices, because the fire spread depends on many natural
and anthropogenic factors. |
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