Spectral wheat yield prediction modeling using SPOT satellite imagery and leaf area index |
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| Authors: | Mohamed Aboelghar Abdel-Raouf Ali Sayed Arafat |
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| Institution: | 1. National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, 23 Joseph Tito St, P.O. Box 1564, Alf Maskan, El-Nozha El-Gedida, Cairo, Egypt
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| Abstract: | As wheat represents the main staple food and strategic crop in Egypt and worldwide and since remote sensing satellite imagery is the tool to obtain synoptic, multi-temporal, dynamic, and time-efficient information about any target on the Earth, the main objective of the current study is to use remote sensing satellite imagery to generate remotely sensed empirical preharvest wheat yield prediction models. The main input parameters of these models are spectral data either in the form of spectral reflectance data released from Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) 4 satellite imagery or in the form of spectral vegetation indices. The other input factor is leaf area index (LAI) that was measured by LAI Plant Canopy Analyzer. The four spectral bands of SPOT4 imagery are green, red, near-infrared, and middle infrared; the five vegetation indices that are forms of ratios between red and near-infrared bands are normalized difference vegetation index, ratio vegetation index, soil-adjusted vegetation index, difference vegetation index, and infrared percentage vegetation index. Another vegetation index is green vegetation index that is calculated through a ratio between green band and near-infrared band. Each of the above-mentioned factors was used as an input factor against wheat yield to generate wheat yield prediction models. All generated models are site-specific limited to the area and the environment and could be applicable under similar conditions in Egypt. The study was carried out in Sakha experimental station by using the dataset from two wheat season 2007/2008 and 2009/2010. The total wheat area was 1.3 ha cultivated by Sakha 93 cultivar. Modeling and validation process were carried out for each season independently. Modeled yield was tested against reported yield through two common statistical tests; the standard error of estimate between modeled yield and reported yield, and the correlation coefficient for a direct regression analysis between modeled and reported yield with each generated model. Generally, as shown from the correlation coefficient of the generated models, green and middle infrared bands did not show good accuracy to predict wheat yield, while the other spectral bands (red and near-infrared) bands showed high accuracy and sufficiency to predict yield. This was proven through the correlation coefficient of the generated models and through the generated models with the wheat crops for the two seasons. Accordingly, the green vegetation index that is generally calculated from green and near-infrared bands showed relatively lower accuracy than the rest of the vegetation index models that are calculated from red and near-infrared bands. LAI showed high accuracy to predict yield as shown from the statistical analysis. The models are applicable after 90 days from sowing stage and applicable in similar regions with the same conditions. |
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