|
|||||
|
|
Application of Archimedean copulas in the analysis of the precipitation extremes: effects of precipitation changes |
|
| Authors: | Qiang Zhang Jianfeng Li Vijay P Singh |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China 2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China 3. School of Geography and Planning, and Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China 4. Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA 5. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA |
| Abstract: | Due to the influence of changing environment and intensifying human activities, hydrometeorological changes are becoming common. This study derives a bivariate joint distribution of total precipitation and precipitation days with daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile and falling below the 25th percentile. Chang points in the precipitation series are detected with more than one statistical method. Results indicate that (1) for P75 and D75, Kendal’s τ does not change significantly even when the existence of change points is taken into account. The selection of a copula is greatly impacted by the existence of a change point; (2) for P25 and D25, τ varies much, while the precipitation variations have no evident effects on the selection of a copula. Therefore, a copula should be selected after the detection of change points to avoid possible bias in results or conclusions. This study is of some merits in terms of risk evaluation based on copula-based probability analysis with available change points. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |