| 由孕震后期非线性层次演化探讨短临预报问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦保燕.由孕震后期非线性层次演化探讨短临预报问题[J].地震研究,1998,21(1):1-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦保燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震兰州地震研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于震源区为最后失稳区，震前前兆信息量最少，最弱以最晚出现，而近源区的调整单元（弱介质区域蠕滑断层等）前兆信息量最多，最强以及最早出现，提出由异常区边界交汇法确定震源位置（以场求源）；又鉴于孕震过程存在阶段性和层次性，提出由阶段性和层次性表现的时间特征确定主震发生时间（简称层次法）由上述二个思路和方法，本文对１９９５年永登地震孕震全过程和短临预报了研究了，研究表明，在地点中期预报基础上进一步由层次
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 短临预报 孕震 层次演化 |
APPROACH TO SHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION FROM NONLINEAR LEVEL EVOLUTION IN THE LATER STAGE OF EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION |
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| Qin Baoyan.APPROACH TO SHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION FROM NONLINEAR LEVEL EVOLUTION IN THE LATER STAGE OF EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1998,21(1):1-12. |
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| Authors: | Qin Baoyan |
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| Abstract: | In view of these facts that focal region is finally lost-stable region with least and the weakest precusor information that appears at the latest before earthquake, but the regulation elements in near-source region(such as weak medium area or creep slip fault)have most and the strongest precusor information that appears at the earliest before earthquake, the author puts forward that focal location can be determined through using boundary convergence method of anomalous areas (finding source from field) and thinks, based on the stage and level feature of seismogenic process, that main shock time can be determined from the time feature of the stage and level (i e level method). From above two methods, the author has studied the seismogenic process and short-impending tracing prediction for the 1995 Yongdeng earthquake and the results show that further tracing precusors through using the level method on the basis of medium term prediction is one of ways to realize short-impending prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Funding source from field level method and short-impending tracing earthquake prediction |
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