| The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M_W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋长胜 吴忠良 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China，Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China，College of Earth Science，Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China |
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| 基金项目： | Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406). |
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| 摘 要： | Introduction The unexpected December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake, which caused devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean, reminds seis-mologists of the difficulty of earthquake forecast and/or prediction. For seismologists this earth-quake is almost completely unexpected, because there was neither forecasting (which means the estimation of the future earthquake rate as a function of location, time, and magnitude) nor predic-tion (forecasti…
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The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation |
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| JIANG Chang-sheng,WU Zhong-liang.The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M_W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2005,18(3). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Chang-sheng WU Zhong-liang |
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| Abstract: | Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earth-quake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the MW=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | the 2004 off the west coast of northern Sumatra MW=9 0 earthquake accelerating moment re-lease (AMR) before earthquakes power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation |
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