| 暴雨站数预报在暴雨落点预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李昌义,顾润源,张飒,孙兴池,张少林,邹树峰.暴雨站数预报在暴雨落点预报中的应用[J].气象,1999,25(8):26-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李昌义 顾润源 张飒 孙兴池 张少林 邹树峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用暴雨站数预报与站点降水量预报相结合的方法预报暴雨落点，在１９９８年７～８月的暴雨落点预报中，ＴＳ评分达到２２．４％，超过了ＨＬＡＦＳ和主观预报。进一步的研究分析表明：这种方法可充分利用降水量预报的空间分布信息，预报准确率还存在较大的可提高空间，是一种较为有效的暴雨落点客观预报方法
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨站数 暴雨落点 客观预报 |
The Application of Rainstorm Station Number Forecast to Rainfall Area Forecast |
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| Li Changyi,Gu Runyuan,Zhang Sa,Sun Xingchi,Zhang Shaolin,Zou Shufeng.The Application of Rainstorm Station Number Forecast to Rainfall Area Forecast[J].Meteorological Monthly,1999,25(8):26-30. |
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| Authors: | Li Changyi Gu Runyuan Zhang Sa Sun Xingchi Zhang Shaolin Zou Shufeng |
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| Abstract: | The forecast of rainstorm fall area was done by the rainstorm station number prediction combined with the rainfall forecast of one station.The TS grade of a operational forecast for rainstorm fall area from July to August of 1998 was up to 22 4%,and more than both HLAFS and subjective forecast.Further,the analysis results show that the method is an effective forecast for rainstorm fall area,and makes the best use of the spatial distribution of rainfall forecast. |
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| Keywords: | rainstorm station number rainfall area rainfall forecast |
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