FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall |
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| Authors: | Giovanna Capparelli Pasquale Versace |
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| Institution: | (1) Dipartimento di Difesa del Suolo, Universit? della Calabria, Rende, Italy |
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| Abstract: | The development of Early Warning Systems in recent years has assumed an increasingly important role in landslide risk mitigation.
In this context, the main topic is the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of landslides. In this paper, we focus
our attention on the analysis of mathematical models capable of simulating triggering conditions. These fall into two broad
categories: hydrological models and complete models. Generally, hydrological models comprise simple empirical relationships
linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that
take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties,
local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In a review of the most important models proposed
in the technical and international literature, we have outlined their most meaningful and salient aspects. In particular,
the Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) and the Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability
(SUSHI) models, developed by the authors, are discussed. FLaIR is a hydrological model based on the identification of a mobility
function dependent on landslide characteristics and antecedent rainfall, correlated to the probability of a slide occurring.
SUSHI is a complete model for describing hydraulic phenomena at slope scale, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, with particular
emphasis on spatial–temporal changes in subsoil pore pressure. It comprises a hydraulic module for analysing the circulation
of water from rainfall infiltration in saturated and nonsaturated layers in non-stationary conditions and a geotechnical slope
stability module based on Limit Equilibrium Methods. The paper also includes some examples of these models’ applications in
the framework of early warning systems in Italy. |
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