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Quantitative risk assessment of landslides with direct simulation of pre-failure to post-failure behaviors
Authors:Cui  Qi  Zhang  Lulu  Chen  Xiangyu  Cao  Zijun  Wei  Xin  Zhang  Jie  Xu  Jiabao  Liu  Dongsheng  Du  Chunlan
Institution:1.State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Room B522, Mulan Building, 800 Dongchuan Rd., Shanghai, China
;2.Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration, 800 Dongchuan Rd., Shanghai, China
;3.Shanghai Key Laboratory for Digital Maintenance of Buildings and Infrastructure, 800 Dongchuan Rd., Shanghai, China
;4.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, 8 Donghu South Rd., Wuhan, China
;5.Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics in Hydraulic Structural Engineering (Ministry of Education), 8 Donghu South Rd., Wuhan, China
;6.Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Rd., Shanghai, China
;7.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, 1239 Siping Rd., Shanghai, China
;8.Chongqing Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, Chongqing, China
;9.Hydrogeology and Engineering Team 208, Chongqing Bureau of Geological Exploration (Chongqing Reconnaissance and Design Academy of Geological Disasters Prevention and Treatment Engineering), Chongqing, 400700, China
;
Abstract:

Most previous studies on the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of landslides focused on the probability of slope failure at the pre-failure stage and adopted empirical models for consequence analysis. The conventional approaches simplify the relationship between the pre-failure state and the post-failure behavior and cannot reasonably account for the effects of uncertainty on the entire landslide process. In this paper, an efficient QRA method that involves the direct simulation of the entire landslide process is proposed. A QRA formula that considers the probability of only those landslides that can impact the element at risk is used. The coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian method is used to simulate the entire landslide process and to identify slopes that can impact the element at risk and determine the failure consequences. The subset simulation method is adopted to efficiently estimate the probability of landslide impact, and parameter uncertainty is considered. Two case histories of landslides are investigated. First, the 2011 Baqiao loess landslide in Xi’an, China, is investigated, and the results of the proposed method are compared with those of the conventional approaches. Second, the proposed method is applied to assess the risk of the 2015 Ganjingzi landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The effects of the risk mitigation works are also discussed.

Keywords:
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