| 汶川特大地震中心暴雨预报指标研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 武敬峰,欧阳灵,青泉.汶川特大地震中心暴雨预报指标研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(1):27-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武敬峰 欧阳灵 青泉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省阿坝州气象局, 马尔康 624000; |
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| 摘 要： | 利用L波段探空资料、常规观测资料和物理量资料对阿坝州汶川、茂县地区49次暴雨过程进行了统计分析，结果表明:在出现暴雨前，中低层风向呈现顺转结构，比湿和θse明显增加并较多月平均明显偏高，盆地西北部有明显水汽辐合，甘肃南部有偏北风、盆地南部附近有≥10m/s的偏南风，依据上述指标建立了7～8月暴雨概念模型，拟合率达到60%。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 L波段探空 预报指标 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-01-12 |
Study on the Forecast Index of the Rainstorm in the Center Area of the Wenchuan Great Earthquake |
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| Institution: | 1. Aba Meteorological Bureau, Barkam 624000, China;2. Wenchuan Meteorological Bureau, Wenchuan 623000, China;3. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the L－wave band sounding data conventional observation data and physical quantity，the paper carries out statistical analysis on the 49 rainstorms at the Wenchuan area and Maoxian area in Aba prefecture．The study results show that before the heavy rain comes，the lower the direction of the wind at the middle and lower level presented veering structure，the specific humidity and θse had been significantly increased and were higher than monthly average，there was obvious water vapor convergence existing in the northwest of the basin，northerly wind prevailed in the southern Gansu province，and there was northerly wind more than 10 m/s or higher in the southern basin．Based on the above indicators，the concept model of the rainstorms during July and August is established with a the fitting rate reaching 60%． |
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