| 混合地震模型的建立及其科学意义 |
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| 引用本文： | 董瑞树,冉洪流,任国强.混合地震模型的建立及其科学意义[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(4):390-396. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董瑞树 冉洪流 任国强 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震科学联合基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国西部古地震和历史地震资料建立了特征地震模型并与分档泊松模型结合组成混合地震模型。研究了青藏高原东南缘的重要地震带鲜水河－小江断裂地区的地震危险性，并与1990年出版的中国地震区划图结果进行了比较，表明在1786年曾经发生过73／4级地震的康定地区（离浙时间为213a，地震复地周期为320a）的地震概率大于后，Ⅷ度区面积同样是前大于后。这说明地震离逝时间与地震复发周期关系对地震危险性计算是有影响的，特征地震与混合地震模型的引入解决了泊松模型无记忆性的缺陷，使计算的结果更科学、合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 特征地震 地震复发周期 青藏高原 混合地震模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000/7/19 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-07-19 |
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MIXED SEISMIC MODEL AND ITS SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE |
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| DONG Rui-shu,RAN Hong-liu and REN Guo-qiang.ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MIXED SEISMIC MODEL AND ITS SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2000,22(4):390-396. |
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| Authors: | DONG Rui-shu RAN Hong-liu and REN Guo-qiang |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geology, CSB, Beijing 100029, China,Institute of Geology, CSB, Beijing 100029, China and Institute of Geology, CSB, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | The characteristic earthquake model is set up by using paleoseismic and historical earthquake data of the West China.The seismic hazard of Xianshuihe Xiaojiang fault zone located on eastern margin of Qinghai Tibet Plateau was estimated based on the mixed seismic model composed by characteristic earthquake model and magnitude apart Poisson model.Having compared with the seismic zonation map of China published in 1990,it is shown that both seismogenic probability and area of the region with I=8 obtained from the mixed model are larger than those on the seismic zonation map.That is to say,the leaving time and recurrence period influence on seismic hazard assessment.Therefore,the nonrecalibility of Poissin model could be solved by using characteristic earthquake and the mixed model,and scientific and reasonable results could be obtained. |
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| Keywords: | Characteristic earthquake Earthquake recurrence period Qinghai Xizang Plateau Mixed seismic model |
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