| 构造地震的前兆理论——震源孕育的膨胀-蠕动模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 牛志仁.构造地震的前兆理论——震源孕育的膨胀-蠕动模式[J].地球物理学报,1978,21(3):199-212. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牛志仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 较详细地讨论了构造地震的震源孕育情况;在考虑了动摩擦效应后,进一步对震源孕育过程和各种物理量的变化规律进行了分析和计算,提出了震源孕育的膨张一蠕动模式.该模式将孕震过程划分为:弹性变形、非弹性变形（膨胀）、前兆蠕动（断层面局部破裂）、加速蠕动（短期和临震）、整体错动（断层面全部破裂）--发震、震后调整等六个阶段.最后讨论了两类不同前兆、蠕裂和崩裂、非弹性变形（膨胀）速度的变化、各种前兆异常的基本形态、短临前兆的物理基础等问题.研究结果表明,膨胀-蠕动模式可能是认识地震前兆现象本质和发展预报技术的一个物理和力学基础.
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| 关 键 词： | 断层面 闭锁段 非弹性变形 震源孕育体 构造地震 交界带 动模 张裂缝 破裂速度 临震 |
| 收稿时间： | 1977-06-10 |
ON THE THEORY OF PRECURSORS OF TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES——DILATANCY-CREEP MODEL OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE DEVELOPMENT |
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| NIU ZHI-REN.ON THE THEORY OF PRECURSORS OF TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES——DILATANCY-CREEP MODEL OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE DEVELOPMENT[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1978,21(3):199-212. |
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| Authors: | NIU ZHI-REN |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, earthquake source development of tectonic earthquakes has been discussed in more detail. Taking into consideration of the effect of the dynamic friction and through further analysis of the process of the earthquake source and the variations of different physical parameters, the dilatancy-creep model of the earthquake source development was proposed. With this model, the process may consist of six stages: （1） elastic deformation; （2） non-elastic deformation （dilatancy） ; （3） precursory creep （partial fracturing on the fault plane） ; （4） accelerated creep （short term and imminent） ; （5） total dislocation （complete fracturing of the fault）-occurrence of the earthquake; （6） adjustments after the earthquake. Then, two different types of precursory phenomena, namely creep fracture and collapsing fracture, as well as the questions like the variation of the velocity of non-elastic deformation （dilatancy）, the basic features of various precursors, the physical basis of short term and imminent earthquake precursors and others have also been discussed.The results of this study possibly show that the dilatancy-creep model may serve as a physical and mechanical basis in discerning the nature of earthquake precursors and to make earthquake predictions. |
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