Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China |
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| Authors: | Lijuan Zhang Dong Liu Xiaodong Yan Dongying Zhou Hong Zheng Lianling Su |
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| Institution: | (1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, USA;(2) Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA;(3) Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA;(4) Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA;(5) Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA;(6) Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA;(7) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;(8) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France;(9) Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA;(10) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA;(11) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA;(12) Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in
Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the
meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the
meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle
lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading
to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban
high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the
surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr,
respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature
forecasted by IPCC. |
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| Keywords: | climate change climate forecast cause analysis Northeast China |
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