A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture |
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| Authors: | Richard M Adams Ronald A Fleming Ching-Chang Chang Bruce A McCarl Cynthia Rosenzweig |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, 97331 Corvallis, OR, USA;(2) Texas A&M University, 77843 College Station, TX, USA;(3) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, 10025 New York, NY, USA |
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| Abstract: | This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value. |
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