Forecast of Tsunamis from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region |
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| Authors: | Yoshiki Yamazaki Yong Wei Kwok Fai Cheung George D Curtis |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Ocean and Resources Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2540 Dole Street, Holmes Hall 402, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes an investigation of the subfault distribution along the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone for the
implementation of a far-field tsunami forecast algorithm. Analyses of seismic data from 1900 to 2000 define the subduction
zone, which in turn is divided into 222 subfaults based on the fault characteristics. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear
long-wave model generates a database of mareograms at water-level stations along the subduction zone and at warning points
in the North Pacific. When a tsunami occurs, an inverse algorithm determines the slip distribution from near-source water-level
records and predicts the waveforms at the warning points using the pre-computed mareograms. A jackknife resampling scheme
uses combinations of input water-level records to provide a series of waveform predictions for the computation of the confidence-interval
bounds. The inverse algorithm is applied to hindcast two major tsunamis generated from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka source and
the computed tsunami heights show good agreement with recorded water-level data. |
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| Keywords: | earthquakes fault inverse algorithm long-wave model subduction tsunamis tsunami forecast tsunami warning |
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