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Retrospective short-term forecast of the 1996 Andreanov (Aleutian Islands) tsunami
Authors:Yu P Korolev
Institution:1.Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far East Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences,Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk,Russia
Abstract:A brief review of the problem of short-term (operative) tsunami forecasting is presented. A method of short-term tsunami forecasting based on the sea level data at remote points is described. The forecast is based only on the seismological information about the coordinates of the earthquake’s epicenter. The application of this method for a retrospective forecast of the 1996 Andreanov tsunami demonstrates a satisfactory coincidence with the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms. The results are compared with the modeling prediction of the same event by other authors. The suggested method of the operative tsunami forecast can serve a basis for the development of a unique programming complex for operative forecasting and can be realized within regional and local tsunami warning services. The method can be used in tsunami warning systems at the stage of their development.
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