Retrospective short-term forecast of the 1996 Andreanov (Aleutian Islands) tsunami |
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Authors: | Yu P Korolev |
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Institution: | 1.Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far East Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences,Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk,Russia |
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Abstract: | A brief review of the problem of short-term (operative) tsunami forecasting is presented. A method of short-term tsunami forecasting
based on the sea level data at remote points is described. The forecast is based only on the seismological information about
the coordinates of the earthquake’s epicenter. The application of this method for a retrospective forecast of the 1996 Andreanov
tsunami demonstrates a satisfactory coincidence with the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms. The results are compared
with the modeling prediction of the same event by other authors. The suggested method of the operative tsunami forecast can
serve a basis for the development of a unique programming complex for operative forecasting and can be realized within regional
and local tsunami warning services. The method can be used in tsunami warning systems at the stage of their development. |
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