Simulated climate and CO2—Induced climate change over Western Europe |
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| Authors: | C A Wilson J F B Mitchell |
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| Institution: | (1) U. K. Meteorological Office, 12 2SZ Bracknell, Berks, RG, England |
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| Abstract: | The use of a relatively high resolution general circulation model (the Meteorological Office 5-layer model) to determine climate changes for impact studies is evaluated. The simulation of present day climate over Western Europe is assessed by comparing not only different seasons with climatological data, but also the mean annual cycle and the frequency of extreme events. It is found that while the broad features of the simulation are satisfactory, the model produces too many cold episodes in spring, and an excessive number of wet days over northern Europe. When atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quadrupled, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents changed appropriately, the number of cold episodes is reduced and precipitation is less frequent in summer and autumn over much of Europe, and throughout the year in the south. The relevance of both the model data and the statistical tests to climate impact studies is discussed. |
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