| Seismic Risk Maps of Taiwan Areasin the Period from 2001 to 2010 |
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| 作者姓名： | Cheng Kuei-Hsiang |
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| 作者单位： | Cheng，Kuei-Hsiang Integrated Research Laboratory on Prevention of Seismic Hazard，Kao-Yuan Institute of Technology，Kaohsiung，Taiwan |
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| 摘 要： | INTRODUCTIONSeveMmethdsdPOtential analyslsfor medium－and short－termpredlctlon dl’l;lln shocks weredevelopedbaseduponthe pnnclpledInaccufatemeasurementoffOCfOCustheoryaMthepattemdmainshocks．These analytic methods can be used to predict strong earthop拙es In shallow layers on thesubducting plate boundeq In squeezed zones．More than a half of strong earthquakes In the world。located inthe shallow depth tthe suMuctingplate boundw In s仰eezed zones．This paPerfirst Statesthe philoso…
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Seismic Risk Maps of Taiwan Areas in the Period from 2001 to 2010 |
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| Cheng Kuei-Hsiang.Seismic Risk Maps of Taiwan Areasin the Period from 2001 to 2010[J].Earthquake Research in China,2001,15(3):311-320. |
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| Authors: | Cheng Kuei-Hsiang |
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| Institution: | Integrated Research Laboratory on Prevention of Seismic Hazard, Kao - Yuan Institute of Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is accumulated and released cyclically in squeezed zones.Several methods were developed to analyze the medium-and short-term potential of main shocks. These methods can be classified into (1) less data systems using the theory of grey model for earthquake prediction, (2) quasi-periodic systems using earthquake activity analysis, (3) systems of grouped activity using order analysis, and (4) nonlinear systems using back propagation (BP) of neural network for prediction analysis. Based upon these analytic methods, risk maps for the prediction of strong earthquakes can be drawn using the records of strong earthquakes in Taiwan for the past 100 years. These risk maps include ( 1 ) a seismic risk map, (2) a loss risk map, (3) a hazard degree map, and (4) a loss degree map. These risk maps make it possible to do a medium-term prediction of main shocks on the 10-year scale. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Medium-and short-term Main shock Potential analysis Shallow layers Subducting plate boundary |
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