Potential for Coal-to-Liquids Conversion in the U.S.-Resource Base |
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| Authors: | Gregory D Croft Tad W Patzek |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of California, Berkeley, USA;(2) Department of Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, The University of Texas, Austin, USA |
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| Abstract: | By applying the multi-Hubbert curve analysis to coal production in the United States, we demonstrate that anthracite production
can be modeled with a single Hubbert curve that extends to the practical end of commercial production of this highest-rank
coal. The production of bituminous coal from existing mines is about 80% complete and can be carried out at the current rate
for the next 20 years. The production of subbituminous coal from existing mines can be carried out at the current rate for
40–45 years. Significant new investment to extend the existing mines and build new ones would have to commence in 2009 to
sustain the current rate of coal production, 1 billion tons per year, in 2029. In view of the existing data, we conclude that
there is no spare coal production capacity of the size required for massive coal conversion to liquid transportation fuels.
Our analysis is independent of other factors that will prevent large-scale coal liquefaction projects: the inefficiency of
the process and either emissions of greenhouse gases or energy cost of sequestration.
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| Keywords: | Hubbert curve production history reserves coal ranks |
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