| 以隶属度为权重的加权回归模型及在水文水资源中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔振才,赵建东,何晓科,曹广占,杨春霄.以隶属度为权重的加权回归模型及在水文水资源中的应用[J].水文,2006,26(2):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔振才 赵建东 何晓科 曹广占 杨春霄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东水利职业学院,山东,日照,276826
2. 河北省保定水文水资源勘测局,河北,保定,071000 |
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| 摘 要： | 概率统计方法在水文水资源中的应用已有很长历史,常用的是线性回归模型。然而,等权线性回归模型的误差不仅与同步观测资料的长度及残差平方和有关,还随自变量与其均值的变幅加大而增大。因此,线性回归模型一般不应该用来外延。基于加权回归模型的基本理论,以隶属度为权重建立了加权回归模型,并证明了加权回归估计值的无偏性。通过实例分析计算,说明了方法的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 隶属函数 权重 回归模型 展延 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852（2006）02-0053-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-09 |
Weighted Regression Model and Its Application with Membership Function as Weight |
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| CUI Zhen-cai,ZHAO Jian-dong,HE Xiao-ke,CAO Guang-zhan,YANG Chun-xiao.Weighted Regression Model and Its Application with Membership Function as Weight[J].Hydrology,2006,26(2):53-56. |
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| Authors: | CUI Zhen-cai ZHAO Jian-dong HE Xiao-ke CAO Guang-zhan YANG Chun-xiao |
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| Institution: | 1. Shandong Hydraulic Engineering College, Rizhao 276826, China; 2. Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of Baoding City, Baoding 071000, China |
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| Abstract: | It is long time to apply hydrologic statistics in series extension. The method to be used is a linear regression model. However, the error of liner regression model is not only concerened with the length of synchronous series and square sum of residue difference, but also increases with distance between independent variable to its mean. Generally, the regression model is not applied to series extension. The weighted regression model is established based on linear regression model with membership function as weight and its unbiasedness being proved. The model has used for series extension in ZIJINGUAN basin and yields satisfactory results. |
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| Keywords: | membership function weight regression model series extension |
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